Q3 2019
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Oct 2019 | Q3 Takeaways
Sep 2019 | Volatility
Jul 2019 | Q2 Takeaways
Jun 2019 | Treasury Yield Curve
May 2019 | Rolling Returns
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Key Takeaways Third Quarter 2019
By Ralph Goldsticker, CFA | 23 October 2019
Despite bouts of volatility along the way, the broad US stock market eked out a small gain during the quarter, extending the longest bull market on record.
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Stock markets remained volatile due to ongoing concerns about slowing growth, trade conflicts, and geopolitical tensions, including Brexit.
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Even with slow growth overseas, and mixed signals at home, the broad US stock market continued to climb, and the Russell 3000 Index is up 20% year-to-date.
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Large cap stocks drove US market strength. US small cap, international developed, and emerging markets all fell during the quarter.
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While US interest rates are low, they are higher than most of the rest of the world, encouraging flows into US markets.
We expect low but positive returns from bonds.
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With economic data indicating slow growth, the Fed cut rates in July and again in September.
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If growth remains weak and inflation low, it is likely that there will be at least one more cut before year-end.
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Labor conditions remain strong, and consumers are spending.
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Despite low interest rates, businesses are not borrowing and spending, and corporate earnings have been disappointing.
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