Oct 2019 | Q3 Takeaways
Sep 2019 | Volatility
Jul 2019 | Q2 Takeaways
Jun 2019 | Treasury Yield Curve
May 2019 | Rolling Returns
Key Takeaways Third Quarter 2019
By Ralph Goldsticker, CFA | 23 October 2019
Despite bouts of volatility along the way, the broad US stock market eked out a small gain during the quarter, extending the longest bull market on record.
Stock markets remained volatile due to ongoing concerns about slowing growth, trade conflicts, and geopolitical tensions, including Brexit.
Even with slow growth overseas, and mixed signals at home, the broad US stock market continued to climb, and the Russell 3000 Index is up 20% year-to-date.
Large cap stocks drove US market strength. US small cap, international developed, and emerging markets all fell during the quarter.
While US interest rates are low, they are higher than most of the rest of the world, encouraging flows into US markets.
We expect low but positive returns from bonds.
With economic data indicating slow growth, the Fed cut rates in July and again in September.
If growth remains weak and inflation low, it is likely that there will be at least one more cut before year-end.
Labor conditions remain strong, and consumers are spending.
Despite low interest rates, businesses are not borrowing and spending, and corporate earnings have been disappointing.